China's raw coal output hit a record high in 2023 along with the continued implementation of supply guarantee policies, driving Q5500 thermal coal prices at the northern port returning to below 1,000 yuan/t. In 2024, overproduction inspections have a significant disruption on coal production in Shanxi province, but the coal supply is secured overall thanks to continued capacity release in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, supporting coal prices to maintain stable. In 2025-2026, with the coal industry trying to peak carbon emission, coal demand will decrease from the peak, while coal supply will become loose on the back of potential capacity reserve. Thus, the falling coal prices will pose a challenge to coal miners' costs, highlighting the significance of coal cost research.  

Based on Fenwei's proprietary coal cost database, we have conducted extensive investigation and research on coal cost in 2023 by coal cost experts and project teams, analyzing the main factors affecting the cost change, and forecasting the coal cost trends in 2024-2026. The "China Coal Cost Analysis in 2023 and Forecast for 2024-2026" is launched now to help our customers understand the whole-process coal cost from production, washing, transportation to delivery at port, as well as the changing trend in the future.

Table of Content

1 Overview 2
1.1 2018-2026 raw coal all-in cost 2
1.2 2018-2026 commercial coal FOB cost 3
1.3 2018-2026 raw coal cost change by item 4

2 2023 China Coal Cost Analysis 7

2.1 Sample selection and cost structure 7
2.1.1 Sample selection 7
2.1.2 Cost structure 8

2.2 Thermal coal 9
2.2.1 Raw thermal coal all-in cost by province 10
2.2.2 Raw thermal coal all-in cost by item 11
2.2.3 Raw coal all-in cost curve 18
2.2.4 Commercial thermal coal FOB cost 20
2.2.5 Commercial coal FOB cost curve 20

2.3 Coking coal 22
2.3.1 Washed coking coal ex-plant cost by province 23
2.3.2 Coking coal ex-plant cost by item 25
2.3.3 Washed coal ex-plant cost curve 34
2.3.4 Commercial coking coal FOB cost 36
2.3.5 Commercial coking coal FOB cost curve 37

3 2024-2026 China Coal Cost Forecast 39

3.1 Forecast methodology 39

3.2 Thermal coal 40
3.2.1 Raw thermal coal all-in cost by province 40
3.2.2 Raw thermal coal all-in cost by item 41
3.2.3 Raw thermal coal all-in cost curve 42
3.2.5 Commercial thermal coal FOB cost curve 45

3.3 Coking coal 47
3.3.1 Washed coking coal ex-plant cost by province 47
3.3.2 Washed coking coal ex-plant cost by item 48
3.3.3 Washed coking coal ex-plant cost curve 49
3.3.4 Commercial coking coal FOB cost 50
3.3.5 Commercial coking coal FOB cost curve 51