China's coking coal market is expected to remain tight in the second half of this year, with prices likely to stay elevated, as supply disruptions from mine accidents and ongoing safety inspections in the key Shanxi producing region continue to constrain output, an industry analyst said.

Speaking at the 2026 China-Mongolia Coal Trade Conference in Bayannur, Inner Mongolia, on June 24, Wu Qian, head of Coking Coal & Coke of Index Department, Fenwei Digital Information Technology Co., Ltd., said coking coal has underperformed thermal coal this year due to weak end-user demand and high import volumes, with prices moving in a volatile range.

A major mine accident in Qinyuan county on May 22 triggered widespread mine suspensions across Shanxi, and output recovery has been slow, Wu said. Shanxi accounts for nearly half of China's coking coal production, and the supply-side contraction has driven prices significantly higher.

In the first five months of this year, China's coking coal output was only marginally above the same period in 2024, reflecting persistently tight supply, Wu said. Following the Qinyuan accident, Shanxi launched a province-wide safety inspection campaign, causing coking coal output to drop sharply to its lowest level since June 2021.

Although raw coking coal capacity has increased slightly, washed coking coal output has edged lower due to safety checks and resource constraints, Wu added.

China's reliance on imported coking coal is expected to grow further amid tight domestic supply. Customs data showed China imported 54.7 million tonnes of coking coal in January-May 2026, up 25.12% from the same period last year, with Mongolian coal gaining a larger share due to logistical advantages and price competitiveness.

While seaborne coking coal has become more price-competitive following the recent rally in domestic prices, Australian premium hard coking coal is being diverted to India, Japan and South Korea, limiting the upside for Chinese imports in the second half, Wu said.

In the near term, the supply-demand imbalance is unlikely to ease, with spot prices expected to remain firm but with weaker upward momentum as more mines resume operations and downstream demand softens, Wu noted.

Over the medium to long term, the Qinyuan accident will have a lasting impact on Shanxi's and the nation's coking coal supply, with off-book output declining significantly, she added. Domestic coking coal production is expected to stay low in the second half, while imports, particularly from Mongolia, will play a growing role in filling the gap.