China's coking coal prices may still hover high in the last two months of 2025, with potential for further rises, said Wu Qian, manager of coking coal and coke index team of Fenwei Digital Information Technology Co., Ltd., at the 2026 Indonesia Coal Outlook Conference on November 5.

Wu gave an insight into the development trajectory of coking prices over 2024-25. She noted that China's coking coal prices followed a downward trend due to oversupply and tepid demand in 2024, with only moderate rebounds in April and September.

The plunge of prices continued in the first half of 2025. Lower prices prompted market pessimism, dampening end-user procurements, she said. Spot coking coal prices edged lower along with falling thermal coal prices, before growing slightly in June backed by stricter safety and environmental checks.

Coking coal prices have rebounded entering the second half year. The National Energy Administration (NEA) launched overproduction inspections in China's eight major coal provinces in July. This lifted the market sentiment and drove a rapid growth of prices.

While leveling off in August and September, the prices climbed further in October, mainly due to persistent rainfall, elevated thermal coal consumption and supply disruptions.

China's coking coal production in 2025 followed an "inverted-V" trajectory, with July-October's weekly output sliding 3% from the first half of this year, according to Sxcoal's weekly survey on coking coal mines. The capped supply would help drive up coking coal prices, said Wu.

Coking coal supply was further checked by declining imports during the first half of 2025, as lower domestic prices eroded price advantages of imports from Australia, Mongolia and other sources. While the imports trended upward in June, the total volume over January-September fell 6% from 2024 to 83.53 million tonnes.

Wu expected China's coking coal imports to drop further this year, primarily due to less-than-expected inflows from Mongolia and declining customs clearance at Ganqimaodu border port. This resulted from low production of major Mongolian miner EET and political uncertainty in the country.

In additional, Wu pointed out that low coking coal inventories and growing crude steel output in China may also push up coking coal prices.

The coking coal market may still see a supply shortage in the short term, leading to stronger fundamental and potential for further rises in prices, she said, while noting potential impact from the government's control on crude steel production.