• 2016 China Coal Industry Supply-side Reform and 2017-2020 Capacity Forecast

  • Date of completion: Jan 5, 2017

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SUMMARY

The 2016 supply-side reform of China coal industry, with focus on decapacity and 276 workdays, has brought significant changes on domestic coal landscape: over 300Mt/a of coal capacity closed, declining coal output and stock, soaring prices and higher-than-expected imports, which has attracted great attention of market players and observers both home and abroad, and they have expressed deep concerns for the effect and direction of China's decapacity policy.
In order to clear doubts of those that are interested in China coal market and show them the direction of China coal industry reform, Fenwei hereby produces this special study report on "2016 China Coal Industry Supply-side Reform and 2017-2020 Forecast", based on our proprietary coal mine capacity database, and expert conclusions and policy interpretation. The report will be presented in form of PPT.

INTRODUCTION

1   Policy Path for China Coal Industry Supply-side Reform in 2016

     1.1  Decapacity and reduction production based on 276 workdays aiming to resolve overcapacity and help enterprises out of difficulty

     1.2  Local governments plan and measure for decapacity and rearranging production on 276 workdays

     1.3  Strict control over newly-added capacity through capacity replacement(to replace small and outdated capacity with large and advanced capacity, with total capacity smaller than before)

     1.4  Policy focus adjusted from cutting capacity and production to stabilizing supply and price (i.e. to allow qualified safety mines to resume 330 workdays)

2   mplementation Effect of Decapacity and 276-workdays Production in 2016

     2.1  All provinces fulfilled decapacity targets in advance

     2.2  Coal output decreased greatly on year

     2.3  Coal miners, transfer ports and end users saw falling coal stock

     2.4  Undersupply triggered soaring coal prices after 4-year consecutive decline

     2.5  Coal imports rebounded significantly and driving up import prices vigorously

     2.6  Rising price boosted mines to expand coal production, while frequent mine accidents occurred at year-end due to less safety input in the last a few years

     2.7  Major problems arising from policy implementation

3   China Coal Capacity Status Quo at 2016-end

     3.1  Total capacity remains in excess after 300Mt/a capacity withdrawal

     3.2  Coal capacity by province(split by the mines being operated, under construction, completed and suspended)

     3.3  Thermal coal capacity(split by the mines being operated, under construction, completed and suspended)

     3.4  Coking coal capacity(split by the mines being operated, under construction, completed and suspended)

4   2017 Outlook: Crucial Stage for China Coal Industry Supply-side Reform  

     4.1  To keep resolving overcapacity(with focus shifting from “production cut” to essentially “capacity cut”)

     4.2  To prioritize closure of certain mines(the mines with small capacity, exhausting resources, inferior coal products or unable to meet safety production standards)

     4.3  Continuous decapacity to exert limited impact on coal production given by serious overcapacity

     4.4  To maintain 276 workdays for controlling coal supply, expecting more flexible implementation comparing to 2016

     4.5  Intensify supervision and safety inspection over mine production

5   2017-2020 China Coal Capacity Forecast

     5.1  Capacity closure by province

     5.2  Newly operated capacity by province

     5.3  Effective capacity by province(the capacity that is able to generate coal products)

     5.4  Thermal/coking coal capacity closure

     5.5  Thermal/coking coal newly operated capacity

     5.6  Thermal/coking coal effective capacity

6   Mid-to-long Term Impact of Supply-side Reform on China Coal Industry

     6.1  China coal supply ability will not be interrupted by decapacity policy due to serious overcapacity

     6.2  Decapacity does good to optimize industrial structure, phase out ineffective supply and speed up industrial upgrading 

     6.3  To help loss-making enterprises out of difficulty and increase profit

     6.4  To promote scale development of both SOEs and private coal companies through enterprise regrouping

     6.5  To further elevate coal industry concentration ratio

     6.6  To raise productivity and control production cost

     6.7  To present higher requirements for safety production and supervision


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