• 2019-2023 China Thermal Coal Market Forecast

  • Date of completion: May, 2019

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SUMMARY

China coal industry experienced a cyclical downturn from 2012, and domestic coalminers struggled against serious excess capacity and price drop. Chinese government embarked on the supply-side reform from 2016, dramatically reversing thermal coal market with a result of soaring prices and surging imports. China will continue the supply-side reform in 2016-20, when small and outdated capacities in coal, power, steel and cement will be eliminated. Amid expected “L”-shape growth of Chinese economy, what the prospect of thermal coal market would be is especially worth of attention.
This report will review China thermal coal market from supply, demand, import & export, prices and logistics, and make a forecast for 2019-2023 in economic growth, coal industry policies, thermal coal capacity and consumption of downstream sectors.

INTRODUCTION

Part 1: 2014-2018 China Thermal Coal Market Review

Executive Summary

1. Introduction of Thermal Coal

1.1.Definition and classification

1.2.Quality indicators

1.3.Main application

2. Review of influencing policies in coal market

2.1.Energy policies (adjustment of energy consumption mix, and energy industry development)

2.2.Coal industry policies

2.2.1.Industry policy

2.2.2.Policies for taxes and administrative charges (resource tax reform and coal-related funds, etc.)

2.2.3.Management measures for commercial coal quality

2.2.4.Policies for coal import and export

2.2.5.Supply-side reform (coal industry decapacity)

2.3.Policies for environmental protection and air pollution prevention & control

3. 2014-2018 Thermal CoalConsumption

3.1.Total consumption and trend

3.2.Consumption by industry

3.2.1.Power industry

3.2.2.Building materials industry

3.2.3.Chemical industry

3.2.4.Metallurgical industry

3.2.5.Other industries

4. 2014-2018 Thermal Coal Supply 

4.1.Total supply and trend

4.2.Supply by province

4.3.Supply by major suppliers

5. 2014-2018 Thermal Coal Imports and Exports

5.1.China thermal coal imports by type/origin

5.2.China thermal coal imports by province

5.3.China thermal coal imports by importers

5.4.China thermal coal exports

6. 2014-2018 China Thermal Coal Demand & Supply Analysis

6.1.China thermal coal supply & demand

6.2.China thermal coal price trend

6.2.1.Domestic pric

6.2.2.Price trend – Chinese vs Global Market s

7. 2014-2018 China Thermal Coal Logistics Analysis

7.1.Logistics pattern

7.1.1.Main flow directions

7.1.2.Main transport routes and cargo volume by rail/road/water

7.1.3.Coal volume by rail/road/water

7.2.Thermal coal transportation cost

7.2.1.Rail

7.2.2.Road

7.2.3.Water

Part 2: 2019-2023 China Thermal Coal Market Forecast

8. 2019-2023 Thermal Coal Demand

8.1.Energy consumption plan

8.1.1.Total consumption and trend

8.1.2.Unit consumption and trend

8.2.Demand from power industry

8.2.1.Thermal and non-fossil energy installed capacity

8.2.2.Unit coal burn and power generation of thermal generating units

8.2.3.Total thermal coal consumption

8.3.Demand from building materials industry

8.3.1.Clinker output, unit coal burn and total thermal coal consumption for cement

8.3.2.Proportion of coal cement in total thermal coal use in building materials industry

8.4.Demand from chemical industry

8.4.1.Output of traditional chemicals (synthetic ammonia & methanol) and thermal coal burn

8.4.2.Output of new-type chemicals (CTL & CTNG) and thermal coal burn

8.5.Demand from metallurgical industry

8.5.1.PCI burn for blast-furnace iron-making (incl. anthracite, meager coal & high-vol bituminous coal)

8.5.2.Coal burn for iron ore sintering

8.6.Demand from other industries

9. 2019-2023 Thermal Coal Supply

9.1.China thermal coal capacity forecast

9.1.1.Forecasting basis

—— Coal industry policies

—— Mine construction and commissioning

9.1.2.Capacity forecasting result

9.2.Supply

9.2.1.Thermal coal output

9.2.2.Coking coal middling output

9.2.3.Thermal coal total supply

10. Thermal Coal Imports and Exports

10.1.Imports

10.2.Exports and net imports

11. 2019-2023 China Thermal Coal Price Forecast

11.1.Influencing factors (supply-demand pattern, policies, inflation, substitutive energy)

11.2.Benchmark coal price forecast (QHD5500, QHD5000)

12. 2019-2023 China thermal coal Logistics Forecast

12.1.Railway freight rate forecast

12.2.Road freight rate forecast

       12.3.Waterway freight rate forecast

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