• China Coal Capacity Release by Month & Quarterly Market Forecast

  • Cycle of publication: Monthly

    Number of pages: About 15

    Number of tables/charts: About 10

    Date of completion: 5th Each month

TOTAL: US$ 2000

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SUMMARY

The State Council of China issued the "Opinions on Resolving Coal Industry Overcapacity and Helping Enterprises through Difficult Times" in this early February, which came to Fenwei as a landmark event to reconstruct China coal market, so it immediately called in experts and analysts to produce a special study report titled "Decapacity VS Cost Cut–Interpretation of the State Council's Opinions on Resolving Coal Industry Overcapacity"; moreover, every two months it introduces the "Follow-up Study of the State Council's Opinions"to track on changes on domestic coal capacity and production and evaluate effect of the Opinions and local governments'supporting measures, with an aim to guide market players, investors and research institutions both home and abroad to hold onto the development trend of China coal industry.

INTRODUCTION

Jul Follow-up Report 

1  Implementation of the State Council’s Decapacity Opinions       

    1.1  Reassessed capacity of each province     

    1.2  Implementation of the “Opinions” in major production provinces  

2 Conclusions of this Report   

    2.1  Estimated China raw coal output in 2016

    2.2  Changes on supply, demand and prices   

    2.3  Recovering import volume        

3  Market Forecast over August-October

    3.1  Coal output to edge up     

    3.2  Coking coal prices to further go up and thermal coal prices to stabilize after rise 

    3.3  Coal imports to remain at high level

 

Sep Follow-up Report 

1  Evaluation of the State Council’s Decapacity Opinions        

    1.1  NDRC laid out measures for coal capacity replacement 

    1.2  Reassessed capacity of each province     

    1.3  Decapacity objectives split by provinces  

    1.4  Coal supply based on 276 workdays

2  Impact of the Decapacity Opinions on Coal Supply, Demand and Prices     

    2.1  Decrease in coal supply    

    2.2  Changes on supply, demand and prices by coal type        

    2.3  Continuous increase in import volume     

3  Market Forecast over October-December  

    3.1  Coal production to gradually recover        

    3.2  Price forecast by coal type        

    3.3  Import volume to remain high

 

Nov Follow-up Report

1  China Coal Capacity Status Quo in 2016

    1.1  Reassessed Operating Capacity based on 276 Workdays

    1.2  Planned Capacity Withdrawal

    1.3  Supply Ability based on 276 and 330 Workdays

2  Impact of the Decapacity Opinions on Coal Supply, Demand & Prices

    2.1  Decrease in Coal Supply

    2.2  Continuous Increase in Imports

    2.3  Changes on Supply, Demand and Prices

3  Short-term Market Forecast

    3.1  Thermal/coking coal supply gap might be filled after more mines resume 330 workdays

    3.2  Thermal coal price to tick down, coking coal price to cease rising but remain firm


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