• 2019-2020 China Thermal Coal Market Analysis and Forecast

  • Cycle of publication: Annual

    Date of completion: Dec, 2019

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SUMMARY

Amid slowing economic growth in 2019, thermal coal consumption growth keeps fast in heating, building materials and iron & steel sectors while decelerates in thermal power due to weakening power consumption growth coupled with rising share of clean energy. De-capacity continues advancing, and supply assurance policies continue executing, boosting domestic market to shift from tight balance to loose supply and thermal coal prices to fall to “green zone” in 4Q. Coal policies center on safe production, air pollution treatment, regulating imports and promoting railway transport. Generally, coal industry runs stable in 2019. 

Fenwei Energy is timely releasing the study report at year end, to review important policies affecting coal industry and market operation, and provide 2020 forecast from macro and industrial environments, demand, supply, price, logistics, import & export, etc.

INTRODUCTION

1. China Macro Economy Review and Outlook

1.1 China macro economy review and outlook

1.1.1 2019 China economic growth continuously slows down (developing trend analysis on economic indicators, such as GDP, FAI, IVA, PMI…)

1.1.2 2020 macro economy development outlook

1.2 Changes of China energy consumption mix

2. 2019 Coal Industry Policies and 2020 Developing Trend Outlook

2.1 De-capacity, capacity release and supply assurance policies

2.1.1 Policy summary and interpretation (objectives, de-capacity progress, etc.)

2.1.2 2019 de-capacity, capacity release and supply assurance by province

2.1.3 2020 de-capacity and capacity release forecast

— 2020 de-capacity targets and policy focus forecast

— 2020 capacity release forecast

2.2 Safety and environmental policies

2.2.1 Policy summary

2.2.2 2019 policy interpretation and impact analysis

— Safety: policies on rock burst mines in Shandong and after mine incidents happened in Yulin, Shaanxi

— Environmental protection: policies on rectification of outdoor coal yards, overload inspections on coal trucks and campaign of “roadway shifting to railway”

— Interpretation on “Air Pollution Treatment Program in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and Surrounding Areas during the Autumn and Winter of 2019-2020”

2.2.3 2020 safety and environmental policies developing trend forecast

— 2020 safety supervision policies forecast

— As 2020 is the year to appraise the results of blue sky protection campaign, environmental policies will not ease.

2.3 Coal import regulation and restriction policies

2.3.1 2019 import restriction policies

2.3.2 2019 import quotas and excess analysis by customs

2.3.3 2020 coal import policy developing trend forecast

3. 2019 China Thermal Coal Demand Analysis and 2020 Forecast

3.1 2019 China total thermal coal consumption analysis

3.2 2019-2020 power sector operation and corresponding thermal coal consumption analysis and forecast

3.2.1 2019 power installed capacity structure, power generation hours, power generation volume and coal consumption analysis

— Electricity consumption growth continues slowing down in 2019.

— 2019 thermal power growth slows down, even showing negative growth in some individual months (rising share of clean energy and soft growth of power consumption)

— 2019 power market key points analysis (reform on thermal power on-grid tariff, marketized reform, UHV power transmission, etc.)

— 2019 power generation by non-fossil energy like hydro, wind, etc.

3.2.2 2020 power installed capacity, power generation hours, power generation volume and coal consumption forecast

3.3 2019-2020 iron & steel industry operation and corresponding thermal coal consumption analysis and forecast

3.3.1 2019 pig iron/crude steel output and thermal coal consumption in PCI/sintering

— 2019 crude steel output maintains remarkable growth

— 2019 de-capacity and newly-added capacity in steel industry

3.3.2 2020 pig iron, crude steel production and thermal coal consumption forecast in PCI and sintering

3.4 2019-2020 building materials industry operation and corresponding thermal coal consumption analysis and forecast

3.4.1 2019 cement/clinker output and thermal coal consumption analysis

— 2019 cement production increases substantially.

3.4.2 2020 cement/clinker production and thermal coal consumption forecast

3.5 2019-2020 coal chemical industry operation and corresponding thermal coal consumption analysis and forecast

3.5.1 2019 methanol, synthetic ammonia, CTL, CTG output and thermal coal consumption analysis

— 2019 coal chemical downstream market analysis

3.5.2 2020 methanol/synthetic ammonia, CTL/CTG output and thermal coal consumption forecast

— 2020 coal chemical downstream market outlook

— Operating, under-construction and under-planning modern coal chemical projects

3.6 2019-2020 thermal coal consumption analysis and forecast in heating supply and other industries

3.6.1 2019-2020 thermal coal consumption analysis and forecast for heating supply

3.6.2 2019-2020 thermal coal consumption analysis and forecast in other industries

3.7 Impact analysis and forecast on thermal coal consumption from environmental protection and air pollution prevention & control actions in autumn and winter of 2019-2020

3.7.1 Scale of coal-to-electricity and coal-to-gas transformation and impact estimation on thermal coal consumption

3.7.2 Impact estimation on thermal coal consumption from industrial production curtailments in autumn and winter season

3.8 2020 China total thermal coal demand forecast

4. 2019 China Thermal Coal Supply Analysis and 2020 Forecast

4.1 Thermal coal capacity analysis and forecast

4.1.1 2019 thermal coal capacity in China and by province

4.1.2 2019 effective thermal coal capacity and composition (operating/trial-run/approved under-construction/unapproved under-construction capacity)

4.1.3 2020 newly-added thermal coal capacity forecast

4.2 Thermal coal supply analysis and forecast

4.2.1 2019 thermal coal supply in China and in main provinces

4.2.2 2020 newly-added thermal coal output forecast

4.3 2019 coal stock trend analysis and forecast

4.3.1 Thermal coal stocks at producing areas (stock change caused by mine incidents and safety inspections)

4.3.2 Thermal coal stocks at transfer ports (maintenance of Daqing Railway, typhoon, etc.)

4.3.3 Thermal coal stocks at key utilities and six coastal power groups (new changes on stocks at power plants and their consuming rhythm)

5. 2019 China Thermal Coal Import & Export Analysis and 2020 Forecast

5.1 China coal and thermal coal imports

5.1.1 2019 thermal coal imports

— By coal type

— By origin

— By province

— By key importer and trader

5.1.2 2020 thermal coal import forecast

5.2 Thermal coal exports

5.2.1 2019-2020 total exports analysis and forecast

5.2.2 Main export destinations analysis (South Korea/Japan/China Taiwan)

6. 2019 China Thermal Coal Transport Analysis and 2020 Forecast

6.1 2019 coal transport volume

— Roadway volume

— Total railing volume and volumes via major lines like Daqin, Shuohuang...

— Shipping volume from Bohai Rim Ports

6.2 2019 roadway/railway under-construction and expanding projects

6.2.1 Haoji (Menghua) Railway

6.3 2019 transport freight analysis and 2020 forecast

— Roadway freight (short/medium/long-distance freight and freight of some typical routes)

— Railing freight (benchmark freight rate/float rules)

— Waterway freight (coastal/waterborne freight)

7. 2019 China Thermal Coal Price Review and 2020 Forecast

7.1 2019 thermal coal supply-demand balance analysis and 2020 forecast

7.2 2019 China thermal coal price trend analysis

— Pit-head price

— Price at transfer ports (spot price/long-term price)

— Price at consuming places

7.3 2020 thermal coal price trend forecast

7.3.1 Price influencing factors: policy, supply & demand, cost, logistics, key events, etc.

7.3.2 2020 thermal coal price forecast by month (monthly average price forecast of Q5500 FOB Qinhuangdao)

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