• 2017-2018 China Thermal Coal Market Analysis and Forecast


  • Cycle of publication: Annual

    Date of completion: Jan, 2018

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SUMMARY

In 2017, China's micro-economy has been growing steadily in a rising momentum, and coal consumptions in main industries have kept rising. Mines resumed 330 working days, and national supply picked up from low position. Coal market prices ran in high position, and industrial profitability improved notably. As approaching the end of this year, Fenwei is timely releasing 2017 China Thermal Coal Market Analysis and 2018 Forecast, interpreting the key policies and forecasting policy evolutions in 2018, conducting a detailed analysis of the operation of thermal coal market in 2017 and also presenting an explicit anticipation of coal market in 2018. Based on coal and related industrial databases after many-year accumulation of Fenwei Energy and compiled by experts in coal industry, the report carried out a deep analysis and forecast into coal market, integrating policy research, data model, quantity analysis and experts' experiences.

INTRODUCTION

Part 1: 2017 China Thermal Coal Market Review

1.  Macro-economic Background

     1.1  Macro-economic overview -GDP, FAI, IVA, PMI…

     1.2  Changes on energy consumption structure -proportion of fossil energy and energy consumption per unit GDP

2.  Thermal Coal Demand Analysis

     2.1  China's total thermal coal consumption analysis

     2.2  The operation of key downstream industries & thermal coal consumption volume analysis

           2.2.1  Power sector operation and thermal coal consumption volume

           2.2.2  Iron & steel industry operation and thermal coal consumption volume

           2.2.3  Building materials industry operation and thermal coal consumption volume

           2.2.4  Chemical industry operation and thermal coal consumption volume

           2.2.5  Thermal coal consumption volume of other industries

     2.3  Analysis of Impacts to thermal coal consumption volume from environmental protection and winter's air pollution prevention actions

3.  Analysis of Major Policies Affecting Development and Market Operation of Coal Industry

     3.1  Supply-side reform

           3.1.1  De-capacity policies and their implementations

           3.1.2  Construction and newly-added advanced capacities

     3.2  Policies to safeguard safety production

     3.3  Policies to stabilize coal prices

     3.4  Policies to protect environment and control air pollution

     3.5  Policies to regulate coal imports & exports

4.  Thermal Coal Supply Analysis

     4.1  Thermal coal capacity

     4.2  Thermal coal supply

     4.3  Thermal coal supply by province

     4.4  Stocks analysis – at coal mines, ports and power plants

5.  Thermal Coal Import and Export Analysis

     5.1  China's coal imports – thermal coal and coking coal

     5.2  China's thermal coal imports

           5.2.1  By coal type

           5.2.2  By origin

           5.2.3  By province

           5.2.4  By main importers

     5.3  China's thermal coal exports

           5.3.1  Total export volume

           5.3.2  Export countries of destination

6.  Thermal Coal Transport Analysis

     6.1  Analysis of impacts from ban of trucking coal inflow/outflow in Northern China's ports

     6.2  Coal transport directions and volume

     6.3  Coal railway transport analysis

           6.3.1  Total volume by railway transport

           6.3.2  Datong-Qinhuangdao Line

           6.3.3  Shenchi-Shuozhou-Huanghua Line

     6.4  Coal transport charges -by railway, road and sea

7.  Thermal Coal Supply & Demand and Price Changing Trend

     7.1  Thermal coal supply and demand balance analysis

     7.2  Thermal coal price and price changes analysis

           7.2.1  Long-term contract price

           7.2.2  Spot price -prices at main producing areas, ports and consuming places

           7.2.3  Imported price

 

Part 2: 2018 China Thermal Coal Market Outlook

8.  Macro-Economic Outlook

9.  Thermal CoalDemand Forecast

     9.1  Forecast of China's total thermal coal consumption volume

     9.2  Thermal coal demand forecasts by industry

           9.2.1  Demand from thermal power generation

                    —— Supply-side reform in power sector -elimination of backward capacities and construction stop and suspension for coal-fired power projects

                    —— Progresses of market-oriented reform in power sector - coal and electricity pricing linkage and market-oriented trading power

                    —— Thermal power installed capacity, power generation and coal consumption forecast

           9.2.2  Demand from iron & steel - crude steel/pig iron output, coal consumptions from blast furnace and sintering

           9.2.3  Demand from building materials – cement/cement clinker output and coal consumption volume

           9.2.4  Demand from chemical industries

                    —— Traditional coal chemical industry - methanol and synthesis ammonia

                    —— New-type coal chemical industry – coal-to-liquids and coal-to-gas

           9.2.5  Demand from other industries

     9.3  Analysis of Impacts to thermal coal demand from Air Pollution Control Actions in 2018 and fire coal substitution policies in key areas

10.  Research on Policies Affecting Coal Industry and Market Operation

     10.1  Supply-side reform – de-capacity and "276 workdays" production with reducing output

     10.2  Supply - long-term contracts, advanced capacities release, de-capacity implementation adjustment, and min/max inventory mechanism

     10.3  Price - long-termcontract prices, spot prices, price monitoring, market order rectification and coal tickets

     10.4  Safety - safety production inspection, inspections on production violating law & rule and overcapacity

     10.5  Environmental protection - environmental protection inspection and air pollution prevention actions

     10.6  Regulation on coal imports and exports 

11.  China Thermal Coal Supply Forecast

     11.1  Thermal coal capacity forecast - capacity of operating, built-up and under-construction mines

     11.2  Thermal coal supply forecast

     11.3  Thermal coal import & export forecast

12.  Thermal Coal Transport Analysis & Forecast

     12.1  Analysis & forecast of transport capacity of main railway lines

     12.2  Analysis & forecast of road transport pattern changes

     12.3  Analysis & forecast of railing, trucking and shipping prices

13.  Thermal Coal Supply & Demand and Price Analysis & Forecast

     13.1  Analysis & forecast of thermal coal supply & demand balance

     13.2  Thermal coal price forecast

             13.2.1  Price-affecting factors analysis - policies, supply & demand, costs, transport…

             13.2.2  Monthly price prediction of thermal coal (monthly average price prediction taking Q5500FOB Qinhuangdao port as object )


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