• 2017-2021 China Coking Coal Market Forecast

  • Date of completion: April , 2017

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SUMMARY

China coal industry experienced a cyclical downturn from 2012, and domestic coalminers were struggling against serious excess capacity and price drop. In the context of economic restructuring, Chinese government embarked on the supply-side reform since 2016 by means of de-capacity and 276-workday reducing production.

During the 13th Five-Year-Plan period, China will continue the supply-side reform in coal and steel industries. It has raised concerns about how coking coal capacity will be impacted and what changes will happen to coking coal supply, demand, and imports in future. This report will respond to these deeply concerned issues based on 2012-2016 market review and 2017-2021 outlook, from the aspect of coking coal capacity, supply, demand, imports & exports, and prices by integrating with economic growth, industry policies, coking coal capacity structure, and development of downstream sectors.

INTRODUCTION

Part 1: 2012-2016 China Coking Coal Market Review

1 Introduction of Coking Coal

1.1 Definition and classification

1.2 Quality indicators

1.3 Main application

2 Relevant Policies for Coal Industry

2.1 Energy policies (adjustment of energy consumption mix, and energy industry development)

2.2 Coal industry policies

2.2.1 Policies for coal resource consolidation, industrial layout and safety production

2.2.2 Policies for taxes and administrative charges (resource tax reform and coal-related funds, etc.)

2.2.3 Management measures for commercial coal quality

2.2.4 Policies for coal import and export

2.2.5 Supply-side reform (coal industry decapacity)

2.3 Policies for environmental protection and air pollution prevention & control

3 Coking Coal Consumption

3.1 Economic performance (GDP, FAI, IVA, CPI, PMI, PPI)

3.2 Fixed-asset investment (real estate, infrastructure, manufacturing, coking coal downstream industries)

3.3 Major steel-based production

3.3.1 Automobiles

3.3.2 Household appliances

3.3.3 Ships

3.4 Development of China steel industry

3.4.1 Steel capacity and distribution

3.4.2 Total pig iron and crude steel output

3.4.3 Pig iron and crude steel output by province

3.4.4 Steel imports and exports

3.4.5 Steel prices

3.5 Developments of China coking industry

3.5.1 Coke capacity and breakdown

3.5.2 Total coke output (incl. coke and semi-coke)

3.5.3 Coke output by province

3.5.4 Coke imports and exports

3.5.5 Coke prices

3.6 Summary of coking coal consumption

3.6.1 Coal blending in coking industry (top charging and stamp charging) 

3.6.2 Total consumption

3.6.3 Consumption by coal type

4 Coking Coal Supply

4.1 Capacity

4.1.1 Total capacity and breakdown

4.1.2 Capacity by province

4.1.3 Capacity by coal type

4.2 Production

4.2.1 Output by province

4.2.2 Output by coal type

4.2.3 Output by major enterprise

4.3 Logistics

5 Coking Coal Imports and Exports

5.1 Imports

5.1.1 By transport means (seaborne and landborne)

5.1.2 By coal quality (HCC & SSCC)

5.1.3 By origin

5.1.4 By importing province

5.2 Exports

5.2.1 By exporting province

5.2.2 By destination

5.3 Net imports

6 Supply-demand Balance and Price Analysis

6.1 Supply-demand balance

6.2 Prices and trend

6.3 Price trend at production regions, transfer ports and consumption regions

6.4 Price comparison between domestic and import coals


Part 2: 2017-2021 China Coking Coal Market Forecast

7 Coking Coal Demand

7.1 Macroeconomic growth (GDP, FAI, IVA...)

7.2 Development trend of China steel industry

7.2.1 Total and per capita crude steel consumption

7.2.2 Pig iron and crude steel output

7.2.3 Steel imports and exports

7.3 Development trend of China coking industry

7.3.1 Coke demand

7.3.2 Coke output

7.3.3 Coke imports and exports

7.4 Summary of coking coal demand

7.4.1 Coal blending ratio

7.4.2 Total coking coal demand

7.4.3 Coking coal demand by coal type

8 Coking Coal Supply

8.1 Analysis on coal industry policies

8.2 Capacity

8.2.1 Capacity (closed, new, under construction)

8.2.2 Capacity by province

8.2.3 Capacity by coal type

8.3 Production

8.3.1 Output by province

8.3.2 Output by coal type

8.4 Quality variation trend

9 Coking Coal Imports and Exports

9.1 Imports

9.1.1 By transport means (seaborne and landborne)

9.1.2 By coal quality (HCC & SSCC)

9.2 Exports

9.3 Net imports

10 Price forecast

10.1 Influencing factors (supply-demand pattern, policies, cost, CPI)

10.2 Benchmark coal price forecast (Liulin No. 4 JM)

10.2.1 Ex-mine clean coal price

10.2.2 Price at target market (i.e., ex-stock price Jingtang Port)

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