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El Nino conditions are already present and may gradually strengthen from 2023 to early 2024, according to a report released by the US's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) on Thursday (June 8) local time.
In its monthly report, the CPC predicted a 56% likelihood of a strong El Nino occurring from November 2023 to January 2024, with an 84% chance of surpassing moderate strength.
El Nino affects ocean currents and airflows around the equatorial Pacific Ocean, leading to weather changes in various regions. Areas that are normally dry may experience flooding, which would displace many people; while some rainy areas may experience drought, which may force some farmers to bail out and others plough money into irrigation technology.
Early signs of El Nino have already threatened food producers across Asia, with farmers in India and other countries preparing for the potential impact on crops.
India's summer crops depend largely on monsoon rains, but rainfall in northwestern India is expected to be below normal levels despite the offset of El Nino's effects by Indian Ocean Dipole to some extent.
In Southeast Asia, palm oil and rice production in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand are threatened by El Nino as well. Indonesia and Malaysia supply 80% of the global palm oil.
The Australian government's forecasting authority has also warned that rainfall in large areas of the country may decline due to El Nino, resulting in a significant decrease in winter crops.
It is predicted that Australian wheat production may drop 34% from the record high to 26.2 million tonnes, slightly below the 10-year average level; barley production will fall by 30% to 9.9 million tonnes, about 11% lower than the 10-year average and rapeseed production could drop by 41% to 4.9 million tonnes, 15% higher than the 10-year average.
Although it is premature to compare this El Nino with the extreme 2015-2016 El Nino, both are very similar in terms of intensity and the speed of rising water temperatures, said Chris Hyde, a meteorologist at Maxar, a leading space technology and intelligence company.
(Writing by Riley Liang Editing by Alex Guo)
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