Coal production in the United States is forecasted to decline 6.31% on the year to 559.5 million short tons (508 million tonnes) in 2023, lower than the previous month's prediction of 577 million short tons, according to the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook released by Energy Information Administration (EIA) on June 6.
The report estimated US coal production in 2024 will see another fall of 14.5% to 478 million short tons, lower than the previous forecast of 491 million short tons.
In terms of consumption, the report indicated US coal consumption in 2023 is expected to decrease by 18.67% from a year ago to 416.9 million short tons. Within this, coal consumption in the electricity sector is projected to decrease by 19.45% year on year to 378.5 million short tons, while consumption in retail and other industries is anticipated to be 22.9 million short tons, reflecting a decline of 14.23% YoY.
In 2024, US coal consumption is expected to be 418.2 million short tons, representing a slight increase of 0.31% compared to the year-ago level. The electricity sector is estimated to consume 380 million short tons of coal, while the retail and other industries are expected to consume 22.2 million short tons.
The report also said that US energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2023 are projected to fall 3.42% from a year earlier. Specifically, CO2 emissions related to coal combustion are expected to decrease by around 18.4% on the year. In 2024, energy-related CO2 emissions are forecasted to decline by 0.4% compared to the preceding year.
Regarding exports, the report revealed that US coal exports in 2023 are estimated to reach 100.8 million short tons, indicating a 18.87% increase from 2022. Among these, exports of thermal coal are projected to be 50.1 million short tons, up 30.47% year on year, while metallurgical coal exports are expected to reach 50.6 million short tons, an increase of 9.05% YoY.
US coal exports are forecasted to reach 103.4 million short tons in 2024, showing a 2.58% increase compared to the previous year. Thermal coal exports are projected to be 48.7 million short tons, while metallurgical coal exports are estimated to reach 54.7 million short tons.
(Writing by Riley Liang Editing by Emma Yang)
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