In 2020, China's new energy installed capacity will likely reach a new high.
On May 25, the National Energy Administration issued an announcement saying that the combined "newly-added digestion capacity" of wind and photovoltaic generation is 85.1 GW in 2020, with 36.65 GW of wind and 48.45 GW of solar.
At a wind power industry seminar held on May 26, Tao Ye, deputy director of the Renewable Energy Development Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, said the most significant role of "the newly-added digestion capacity" is the guideline of how much wind and solar power is able to be integrated into the grid.
Compared with the actual scale of wind and photovoltaic capacity getting into the grid in the past years, the guideline this year may create the fastest growth in China's renewable development.
Tao predicted there will be 68-72 GW of wind and solar power capacity to be hooked up to the grid across the country this year, if the subsidy window of renewable grid-connection is no longer postponed.
"This is a very high expectation, and this year may see the highest installed capacity of new energy in the domestic market." Tao Ye said.
NEA data showed China newly put 25.74 GW of wind and 30.11 GW of solar power capacity onto the grid in 2019, totaling 55.85 GW.
Tao noted the growth of wind power this year will continue the trend in 2019 with efforts on grid parity, offshore and distributed development.
Affected by the Covid-19 epidemic, from January to April this year, China's newly-installed wind capacity increased 3.64 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 36%.
In April, however, the newly-added wind reached 1.13 GW, picking up both on the yearly and monthly basis, in which 0.29 GW was offshore, a 48.4% rise year on year.
Tao said that newly-added wind power capacity in the first four months only accounted for 13% of the annual schedule, down 9 percentage points year on year, thereby wind investors will scramble for the installation in the rest of the year, together with concern of the subsidy duration will be no longer extended.
As the cost of wind generation is going towards the goal of the grid parity, onshore and offshore costs will continue to decline in the next 30 years.
In 2018, the weighted average construction cost of onshore wind power in the world was $1,497/KW, Tao said. "The figure will fall to $800-1,350/KW in 2030 and $650-1,000/KW in 2050."
For offshore construction, the cost will drop to $1,700-3,200/KW in 2030 and to $1,400-2,800/KW in 2050, he expected.
(Writing by Alex Guo Editing by Tammy Yang)
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