迎峰度夏 煤价在博弈中寻求平衡

中国能源报 General,  Viewpoint 2018-06-08 08:50:00

国家发改委等部门近日密集调控煤炭市场,力促自4月开始上涨的煤价回归理性。但一年一度的迎峰度夏即将来临,电力需求季节性上涨明显,煤炭价格也在各方博弈中“艰难”寻找平衡。


5月30日,广州电网发布红色错峰执行信号,称受连日高温天气影响,广州电网用电负荷持续攀升。当日,由于系统负荷较5月29日大幅增长,全省存在较大供电缺口,各大用户需严格按要求执行错峰。


山东某电厂负责人在接受记者采访时坦言:“煤炭供应不会出现太大问题。这么多年也没听说有几个电厂因为缺煤停机,关键就是价格问题。”


在原中国煤炭工业协会咨询中心某工程师看来,今年夏季动力煤供应增量有限,在需求上升的预期下,动力煤现货价格将获得较好支撑。


值得注意的是,神华最新公布的6月长协价格上涨明显。月度长协外购5800上涨33元/吨,达659元/吨,现货特低灰煤更是高至710元/吨,涨幅达每吨45元。


电力需求上涨明显


事实上,不只广州面临供电缺口,其他省份也已预计到电力紧张。


5月18日,山东省下发通知,对迎峰度夏面临的电力紧张进行部署。贵州省也于5月25日召开年度省内跨区域中长期电煤合同签订协调座谈会,以保障跨区域和贫煤地区火力发电厂的签约。


国家电网能源研究院副院长胡兆光对记者表示,今年夏天电力需求会有较大增加,这与气温升高有关,但较大增长更主要的是由经济增长需求带动。“其中,煤电需求也会增长较大。”胡兆光说。


相关数据显示,今年 1-4月,全国发电量同比增长7.7%,仅4月单月,火电发电量增速就高达7.3%,远高于预期。


电厂日耗也维持高位。从沿海六大电厂来看,4月以来日耗均处于历史同期较高水平。5月31日日耗高达到76.07万吨,库存可用天数降至16.52天,较5年同期均值低5天。


“库存最低时,我们电厂只有1万多吨,而实际正常库存应是维持在10-15万吨。”上述山东电厂负责人透露。


汾渭能源价格中心主任曾浩对本报记者表示,今年夏季用电需求同比增速或超10%。在电力供给侧改革的背景下,电力供应在高峰期或出现不足,所以部分地区可能要限电。


对此,上述工程师也表达了类似观点。他认为,电厂日耗在传统淡季持续处于较高水平,表明电力需求较为旺盛。近期南方省份高温提前来临,南方电网负荷也出现快速增加。“此外,从现在掌握的情况看,今年几个用电大省的电力供应到夏季可能面临紧张。”


煤炭供应或存短期缺口


尽管国家发改委此前表示,将通过增产量、增产能、增运力、增长协等措施进一步稳定煤市,但就在用煤高峰季即将到来之际,相关部门已开始严查超能力生产和不安全生产。


国家煤矿安全监察局日前下发《关于开展煤矿超能力生产专项检查工作的通知》称,将对煤炭主产区大同、朔州、榆林和鄂尔多斯等地煤矿开展超能力生产专项检查,对检查发现的超能力生产煤矿,将依法给与上限处罚。此外,该局还公布了《关于有效防范和遏制煤与瓦斯突出事故的通知》,对六种情形的不安全生产煤矿一律停产整顿或关闭。


对此,曾浩认为,环保和安全检查在近两年都是重点工作,政府部门重点考虑环境和安全,而非市场因素。所以,尽管迎峰度夏期间的用煤高峰即将来临,但对于超能力生产和不安全生产,该查还是得查。


同煤集团相关负责人告诉记者,“山西大部分是大型煤企,一般都按章生产,不敢违规,煤监局检查的重点不在大型煤企,而在小煤矿,对煤炭市场影响有限。”


“虽然国家发改委等部门多次对高煤价进行调控,但影响煤价的还有环保、安全等主管部门,而且地方政府与煤企已经意识到,在关闭了大量小煤矿前提下,大型煤企控制产量显然会提高煤价,利好煤企。”上述电厂负责人坦言。


但是,对于煤炭供应充足性的质疑仍然存在。


“从供应看,今年已完成核准的煤矿项目涉及产能3910万吨/年,大部分是未批先建、已生产多年的项目,只是在今年补办手续,所以,短期实际新增有效产能很少。”上述工程师介绍,根据对煤炭企业和地方煤炭主管部门的调研,部分新增煤炭产能的投产将主要集中在8月以后,对夏季动力煤供应产生的增量有限。


一位不愿具名的业内人士表示,相关部门近期加大煤市调控力度,是因倾向于认为目前煤炭供应充足,前段时间煤价上涨是由炒作导致,属“情绪性上涨”。但他认为,受需求快速增长和落后产能持续退出的影响,在当前的高煤价下,煤炭供应整体还是紧平衡状态,淡季偏宽松,旺季则偏紧张,或存短期缺口。


煤价走势仍存争议


受益于相关部门调控,煤炭价格出现回落。


据商务部监测,5月21日至27日一周全国煤价下降0.4%。其中,动力煤价格为每吨593元,下降0.7%。5月30日最新一期的环渤海动力煤价格指数5500大卡动力煤也环比下降1元/吨,报收于570元/吨。


上述同煤集团负责人也表示,该集团长协煤占比较大,目前煤价销售平稳。


但是,最新一期的中国沿海电煤采购价格指数却上涨明显。5500大卡煤综合价环比仍有5元/吨涨幅,而成交价涨幅更大,达2.68%,上涨了17元/吨。5000大卡煤成交价则上涨37元/吨。


上述山东某电厂负责人表示,其所在电厂位于山东西部,相对于华东其他地区,煤价已相对较低,但仍在5月达到了每大卡0.107元。“预计6月价格还会上涨,达到0.13元/大卡的水平。”该负责人说。


煤炭市场专家李廷表示,目前,煤炭产地产能受限,环保要求严格,同时进口煤政策也没完全放松,在沿海地区煤炭需求增长较快、进口总量控制的情况下,铁路运力仍然偏紧。如果这些问题不解决,而需求再进一步增长,煤价再度走高的可能性较大。


曾浩则认为,刨除“炒作”因素,由市场供需关系导致的煤价上涨很难通过政策有效调控。如果继续高温,电力保持现在的需求增速,煤价出现较大幅度上涨也不无可能。


但是,煤炭企业对煤价走势则“淡然”很多。


“在国家相关政策的调控下,煤价应该不会出现太大波动。”上述同煤集团相关负责人说。


记者注意到,除中煤集团近日主动降低煤价外,陕煤集团也要求该集团所属的陕北、黄陵和彬长矿区经铁路销售的动力煤市场交易价格,自5月28日起不高于年底长协合同价格。


“还是希望相关部门对煤价的调控措施能够落到实处,否则对于电厂而言,高煤价虽有利于燃煤电厂的去产能,但也确实给电厂带来经营压力和安全隐患。”上述电厂负责人坦言。


(Writing by   Editing by Harry Huo)
For any questions, please contact us by inqury@fwenergy.com or +86-351-7219322.

Share this article
Connect with us

Editors Recommendations

1 China's domestic coal prices fall slightly; few transactions 2018-06-20

Offer prices for Chinese domestic thermal coal eased at northern ports, following the decrease before the Dragon Boat Festival (June 16-18). Bearish sentiment seemed to extend, with few trades conclud

2 Chinese thermal coal importers sidelined as Yuan hits 5-mth low 2018-06-20

China's thermal coal importers were sitting on the sidelines recently and made few inquiries for the power-generating fuel, as Chinese yuan fell to the lowest in the past five months. Gen

3 Weekly China met. coke market analysis and forecast 2018-06-20

Chinese met. coke market saw the eighth price rise of 100 yuan/t in major production areas of Shanxi, Hebei and Shandong provinces, adding up to a total 650 yuan/t increase since late April.

4 China Coal Daily Track (Jun 19) 2018-06-19

Thermal coal Domestic market Some mines in Yulin of Shaanxi were closed amid environmental inspections. In Ordos of Inner Mongolia, those mines that halted production haven't resumed oper

5 Australian govt heartened by rising demand for coal in China, Southeast Asia 2018-06-19

The Australian government has been buoyed by growing interest in thermal coal from Southeast Asian countries, saying the increased demand demonstrated how bright the future was for Australian coal.

6 Coking coal output curbs strengthen in Shanxi as envir inspection tightens 2018-06-19

Miners were asked to reduce coking coal production in a major production city in northern China's Shanxi province when environmental inspection groups came to the province last week. Luli

7 Large Chinese miners sending affordable coal cargoes to Bohai-rim ports 2018-06-19

Trains loaded with "affordable" thermal coal from large Chinese miners are arriving at northern China ports, playing a significant role in stabilizing the overheated market, sources reported.

8 The 8th price rally kicks off in China's coke market on production curbs 2018-06-19

China's domestic coke market is in the process of another price rally of 100 yuan/t, the 8th increase since May, as environmental clear-out strengthened recently and caused lower supply in major produ

9 Expectations diverge on Chinese near-term thermal coal market 2018-06-19

Views were divided on where Chinese thermal coal market would head for in the near future after spot prices went down last week along with large miners' reduction in monthly contract prices.

10 Shaanxi Coal & Chemical Jan-May coal sales up 9pct on yr 2018-06-19

Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Group logged a year-on-year increase of 9.63% in coal sales to 59.61 million tonnes in the first five months of 2018, the company said recently. Its coa

Most Read Articles

1 China's major coal miners vow to ensure supply and stabilize prices 2018-06-12

While CHN Energy announced late last week to lower their June contract coal price within the "yellow range" below 600 yuan/t, more major miners have promised to lower prices to ensure adequate supply

2 Major Chinese miners work to stabilize thermal coal prices 2018-06-11

Some leading miners in China made price adjustments in response to government's call for stabilizing thermal coal price and supply, sources said. China Energy Investment Cor

3 China to launch broader environmental inspections this month 2018-06-11

China will expand environmental inspections to more cities and regions in a new round of checks from this month to April next year, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) said in a statement on

4 China's raw coal output rises to a new high in May 2018-06-14

China's raw coal production registered a new high in May since this year, according to official data, as miners churned out the material driven mainly by tempting profit and rallying prices.

5 China proceeds development of coal-to-oil conversion 2018-06-15

China is developing new energy sources by converting coal into diesel. The world's first coal to diesel conversion production line, in China's Inner Mongolia autonomous region, produced 8

6 Weekly China coal market news summary (Jun 11 – Jun 15) 2018-06-15

China to launch broader environmental inspections this month China will expand environmental inspections to more cities and regions in a new round of checks from this month to April next yea

7 CHN Energy reduces contract coal prices within 600 yuan/t, sources 2018-06-11

China Energy Investment Group, also known as CHN Energy, announced to control its monthly contract prices of thermal coal, media reported late June 8, in a way to cool down the overheated coal market.

8 China's steel mills utilisation rate falls for 3rd week on environmental checks 2018-06-12

Utilisation rate at steel blast furnaces across China fell for a third consecutive week last week as of June 8, data showed, as environmental inspections continued to weigh on operation at steel mills

9 China's 20 large steel makers launch maintenance to improve environment 2018-06-14

A total 20 Chinese large steel makers have launched maintenances since June 11, said the Ministry of Ecology and Environment days earlier, in a move to strengthen environmental inspections at key poll

10 China plans to create a $78 bln natural gas giant 2018-06-15

Together with its massive push to have more and more residential and industrial customers switch from coal to gas, China is aiming to overhaul the ownership of its huge gas pipeline network.